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China has sent its maritime law enforcement into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.