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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd